NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Overall, the U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to experience a challenging start followed by improving momentum as the year progresses, with inflation remaining sticky and financial markets navigating periods of volatility and opportunity. These forecasts are courtesy of Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist for investment bank Spartan Capital Securities, LLC, which has released its 2026 Economic Outlook. Each year, Spartan Capital analyzes prior market performance, macroeconomic trends, and sector data to issue its widely anticipated report to investors, analysts, and the media.
“We expect economic activity to remain weak through the first two quarters of 2026, as labor market pressures and tariff related cost impacts persist,” explains Cardillo in the report’s summary. “As tax benefits take effect during the second quarter, conditions should improve, supporting household demand. For the full year, we project real GDP growth to average 1.85 percent per quarter, with growth strengthening into year end.”
“While early 2026 reflects continued economic pressure, we see improving fundamentals later in the year as growth gains traction,” adds Cardillo.
Despite near-term challenges, Cardillo identifies selective opportunities for investors across key sectors.
Equities are expected to trend mostly higher throughout 2026, despite a market correction of approximately ten to fifteen percent anticipated in the latter part of the first quarter or early in the second quarter. This pullback is expected to reset valuations and support a strong finish to the year, with the S and P 500 projected to reach 7,300 or higher.
Energy markets are projected to remain influenced by elevated production levels and modest demand growth. U.S. output is expected to continue rising, while OPEC plus production adjustments during the second and third quarters should help maintain balance. Crude oil prices are forecast to average approximately 67 dollars per barrel in 2026.
Precious Metals are expected to continue their strong performance in 2026. “Gold prices are projected to trend toward 5,000 dollars per ounce,” says Cardillo, citing geopolitical tensions, rising government deficits, and sustained central bank demand. Silver is also projected to perform well, with a 2026 price target of 75 dollars per ounce supported by growing industrial usage.
The U.S. dollar is expected to experience wider trading swings in 2026 as trade dynamics, monetary policy shifts, and foreign exchange risks influence markets. Cardillo anticipates the Dollar Index trading within a range of approximately 90 to 100.
Fixed Income markets are expected to reflect continued yield volatility as inflation uncertainties remain present. Tariff related inflation and evolving monetary policy are likely to influence bond market performance throughout the year.
Spartan Capital’s Chief Executive Officer, John Lowry, echoes the outlook’s measured tone. “The 2026 outlook reflects a period of adjustment and opportunity. Market conditions continue to evolve, and disciplined analysis remains critical for investors navigating this environment.”
With decades of experience, Cardillo’s insights into macroeconomic trends, equities, energy, fixed income, currencies, and precious metals continue to guide investors, portfolio managers, and financial analysts globally. His commentary frequently appears in leading financial media outlets including CNBC.it, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters.
To read the full 2026 Economic Outlook, please visit: https://spartancapital.com/market-commentary-2026-economic-outlook/
Spartan Capital Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC/MSRB
Spartan Capital Securities, LLC is a full service investment banking firm offering a comprehensive range of advisory services to institutional clients and high net worth individuals. Known for its expertise in capital raising, strategic advisory, and asset management, Spartan Capital delivers tailored solutions to meet clients’ financial objectives.
For more information about Spartan Capital Securities, visit www.spartancapital.com.
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